Coordinator: HBCSE Program Office
Prof. Sandeep Juneja, TIFR
Forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and understanding the impact of various non-medical interventions are of obvious importance to the policy makers as well as to the general public. Agent-based simulation models have turned out to be a powerful tool for arriving at such scenario analysis of epidemic spreads. The strength of these models is that they capture the detailed population interactions in a region at a granular level and provide a great deal of flexibility in modelling complex strategies and interventions. In this talk we review such epidemiological models, their utility, the issues related to computation, parameter estimation and model validation. We then discuss the IISc-TIFR city-scale agent-based framework for comparing various "unlockdown" strategies. The talk will end with our study on Mumbai, e.g., modelling of local train services and containment zones in Mumbai, importance of compliance, and the impact of the graded openings of workplaces on the city medical infrastructure.